Given a less predictable coin than a cat on caffeine, how would you estimate its price? Though some argue you need wizardry, let’s try gut and wits.
Photographs of bitcoin price prediction prior existence show each bull run as riding a wild horse without stirrups. It touched the heavens one November and then fell back to earth faster than you could yell “to the moon!.” Individuals amassed riches. A few misplaces their shoes and shirts. Veterans began equating it with gold, but gold never made grandmas wealthy over night.
Chart-watchers have their lines and forms. ” Double top!” Bullish engulfing Head and shoulders!—though these trends affect actual money, it sounds like gym locker room humor. One might say that FOMO is a stronger force than gravity. Those enormous crypto holdings, whales, might flutter around and create waves that send the price surfing or sinking. Nobody knows who’s approaching, but everyone holds their breath, like hearing stealthy footsteps in a dark corridor.
Layer news on top. Every time a large nation groans about laws or a billionaire tweets anything—a nose-dive or rocket immediately follows. Headlines are the match for the burning of Bitcoin. Then let the clamor of “It’s a hedge against inflation” swell. Except in rare cases, which sounds comforting.
“When should I buy?” friends ask. One unfortunate soul I know panicked, purchased high, sold low, then vowed off cryptocurrency permanently. Timing is essential, yet occasionally it seems like throwing darts blindfolded. Usually sleeping better at night, long-term holders require piano wire-made nerves; day traders require other nerves. Then you have miners, those online prospectors whose expenses and rewards vary with every “halved.” The prize halves, panic starts, and conjecture takes off.
Algorithms are now in conflict. Machines count, examine trends, and try to spit out a number: $100,000? $25 thousand? Choose a card, any kind of card. A few people rely on the arithmetic. Others groan about emotions and cycles. The one thing everyone agrees on—volatility rules.
Not overlook the social circus either. “HODL!” the throng cries in unison. Or, just as quickly, “Panic sell!” In April, moods change more quickly than temperature. Day traders fed on coffee believe they can surpass past performance. Long-distance braggers about diamond hands on every red day.
What may propel Bitcoin toward unprecedented heights? An additional ETF? a large company joining in on things? Perhaps the next halved will start a fresh gold rush. Even if one can look at candles and polish crystal balls, the price of Bitcoin is still a changing goal. Just avoid betting anything you cannot afford to lose; you can guess, hope, and chuckle at poor predictions. Some rides are not worth missing lunch over.